Archive | September 23, 2011

Weather Share From Tokyo , Possible Typhoon Towards the Phillipines , Invest 98W , 23 SEP 2011

0830 UTC September 23, 2011 Tropical Update-Watching Invest 98W

I’m back!

Right now we are still watching Invest 98W which has improved in organization and satellite appearance today prompting the JTWC to put up a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert which gives 98W a “HIGH” chance of become a cyclone within the next 24 hours. The partially exposed circulation was last located approximately 620km west of Guam or about 400km away from the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Winds are estimated to be around 30 to 40kph based on a recent ASCAT pass.

Invest 98W could enter the PAR later tomorrow and will be named “Pedring”. The disturbance features a relatively large circulation with fragmented convective activity which has actually increased over the past few hours. Sea surface temperatures are very warm–around 29 to 30C. Wind shear in the area is also light–5 to 10kts.

Computer models are in really good agreement with the formation of 98W. Furthermore, the spread on the forecast track is surprisingly not that big. The consensus among the 00z model guidance suite takes 98W towards Northern Luzon by the middle of next week either as a strong Tropical Storm or a weak Typhoon. It is still too early to iron out the details so please stay with us for the latest developments on 98W.

VIS Image of Invest 98W from NRLMRY

-WxCaster PAT