Archive | November, 2013

Zoraida making landfall in Davao Oriental – Tuesday Morning Update

Weak tropical depression Zoraida is making landfall this morning in Davao Oriental.  The circulation center with Zoraida remains partially exposed and well elongated.  That, coupled with traversing Mindanao, should limit any near-term development.  Additionally, most model guidance keeps Zoraida as a tropical depression or, at worst, a minor tropical storm.  However, regardless of development, rain showers and thunderstorms are spreading over most of the Visayas, where recovery efforts are on-going, and Mindanao.  GFS models are indicating 25-50 mm of rainfall over much of Mindanao and the Visayas through Friday morning with southern Palawan possibly receiving 50-100 mm.

This morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for much of northern and northeastern Mindanao as well as a majority of the central and western Visayas and northern Palawan.  JMA still forecasts Zoraida to be upgraded into a tropical storm within the next 24 hours, however, considering land impacts, this may be difficult to achieve until Zoraida is located in the Sulu Sea.  On the other hand, JTWC has yet to issue advisories on this system as it misses the requirements to be declared a tropical cyclone by US/JTWC definition.  However, they maintain the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert for this area, labelled Invest 90W.

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Latest video update from Robert Speta Below, this video covers Zoraida but also the heavy snowfall that is taking place across northern Japan.


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Tropical Depression Zoraida forming southeast of the Philippines, may hamper recovery efforts

JMA and PAGASA are currently warning on Tropical Depression Zoraida, about 300 km south of Palau.  Models project this system to slowly develop over the next couple of days before impacting the Caraga region of Mindanao as well as the Visayas.  While the forecast intensity is nothing compared to Yolanda, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to hamper recovery efforts from both Yolanda and the Bohol earthquake.

One thing slowing the development of this system is the low latitude at which it formed.  Currently just south of 5 °N, Coriolis–an effect caused by the rotation of the Earth and help increase the spin of developing low pressure areas–is very limited and is hindering rapid development.  However, ocean waters and atmospheric conditions remain favorable for development.  Therefore, the consensus is a tropical storm to impact the central Philippines.  Although a tropical storm, those winds can further devastate impaired infrastructure in this region.

If this system is upgraded by JMA to a tropical storm, it would received the North Korean name “Podul” meaning willow tree.

We’ll continue to monitor the progress on Zoraida.  Stay tuned…

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Typhoon Haiyan (Bagyong Yolanda) Afternoon Update | November 10, 2013

Typhoon Haiyan is currently affecting Hainan Island and continues to move towards Northern Vietnam. The storm center was last located approximately 230km southwest of Haikou, Hainan or about 400km southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam. Latest warning from JMA shows the winds have decreased slightly with sustained to 150kph and gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Haiyan is currently moving northwestward at 30kph.

Radar from CMA

hainan radar

Latest radar image from China Meteorological Administration shows bands of light to moderate rains impacting Hainan Island and parts of Guangxi and Guangdong provinces. As much as 300mm of rain has already been recorded in many places bringing flooding. Winds of up to 140kph were also recorded in the city of Sanya in Hainan Island causing some damage to structures.

For more radar images and weather updates from China, please click HERE

Typhoon Haiyan will continue moving northwestward and could make landfall in Northern Vietnam later tonight. It will pass near Hanoi and should rapidly weaken as it moves further inland. The threat of heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge will remain through tomorrow. Haiyan will then turn northward into Guangxi Province of China.

For more details on Haiyan please watch our Video Update below:

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We also give an update on the situation in the Philippines and the first images out of Guiuan, Eastern Samar showing the destruction in that town. We are also updating viewers on the possible storm that could impact the Philippines this week. If it does form, PAGASA will give the name Bagyong Zoraida and could bring rains for Visayas.

Stay safe!